继续唱衰ev

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/38318477.html

发信人: rosmile (Yo-Yo), 信区: Stock
标  题: 继续唱衰ev
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Feb 27 15:48:57 2021, 美东)

One industry within the stock market that's exhibiting exceptionally
high levels of irrational exuberance is electric vehicles, or EVs.

The thesis behind buying EV stocks is simple to understand, and it generally
makes sense. With most developed countries focused on reducing their carbon
footprint, EVs have become the future for the auto industry. It's not a
matter of if EVs will take over our highways, but simply a matter of when
that might happen. This is why we've seen auto stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ
:TSLA) and NIO (NYSE:NIO) rocket into the stratosphere. Shares of Tesla are
up almost 590% on a year-to-date basis, through Nov. 26, while NIO has
gained a not-too-shabby 1,240%.

I have little doubt that Tesla and NIO are going to be able to expand their
production and see their sales head higher. But sporting valuations of $544
billion for Tesla and $73 billion for China's NIO makes little sense
considering that neither company has shown the ability to generate a
recurring profit, based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
Tesla's valuation is especially egregious when you realize that the only
reason it's been able to generate a profit in recent quarters is
because it's been selling emission credits to other automakers.

At $544 billion, Tesla's market cap is higher than General Motors (NYSE:
GM), Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, Honda Motor, Nissan Motor, Ferrari, and Fiat
Chrysler combined, yet it'll only produce 500,000 EVs this year!
Meanwhile, NIO's market cap is higher than General Motors, despite NIO
only delivering roughly 22,500 premium EV SUVs over the past six months.
None of this makes sense.

Just like any next-big-thing investment, EV manufacturers are likely to face
production expansion hurdles and competitive concerns as every auto company
under the sun tries to get its foot in the door.

EV stocks can be long-term winners for investors, but not before reality
kicks in and the bubble bursts on these absurd valuations.
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